A day trading blog, in public
One setup. Every session. In public.
If day trading has felt like guessing, start here. I'm Indy Karveli: I trade the London and New York opens live, then post every session, win or lose, in points. One setup, plain rules, mistakes left in.
Rules-only record, simulated, separate from my live account, in points. Not typical: most people who day trade lose money. See every session
Education, not financial advice. These are the signals one strategy produced, shown in points. Futures trading carries substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. Past results do not predict future results. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell anything. Full disclosures.
The plan
- Nothing before the 3:00 PM open
- Hard stop at the top/bottom of the first engulfing candle, never moved
- Trailing stop at the previous candle's top/bottom, moved every candle
- Flat by 1:00 PM, whatever is open
- Same size every signal
Yesterday's adjustment (close at the alarm, even when green): kept. Every signal was closed by 9:30 AM.
The signals
| Opened | Closed | Side | Entry | Stop | Exit | Risk (pts) | Result (pts) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6:00 PM | 9:00 PM | Short | 30,630.25 | 30,686.75 | 30,619.50 | 56.50 | +10.75 |
| 9:00 PM | 11:00 PM | Long | 30,660.75 | 30,618.00 | 30,632.25 | 42.75 | −28.50 |
| 11:30 PM | 12:00 AM | Short | 30,539.75 | 30,616.25 | 30,616.25 | 76.50 | −76.50 |
| 12:30 AM | 2:00 AM | Long | 30,693.00 | 30,613.75 | 30,643.50 | 79.25 | −49.50 |
| 2:00 AM | 5:30 AM | Short | 30,588.25 | 30,652.50 | 30,601.25 | 64.25 | −13.00 |
| 5:30 AM | 9:30 AM | Long | 30,779.25 | 30,587.00 | 30,845.00 | 192.25 | +65.75 |
| Net for the session (6 signals, 2 worked, 4 failed) | −91.00 | ||||||
Working it out
The record is in points so you can do your own math. On CME's Micro E-mini Nasdaq-100 (MNQ), one point is $2 per contract. Take the net points, multiply by $2 and by your contract count, then subtract your commissions and fees. That's your number, not mine.
Total risk across the six signals was 511.50 points. Signal 3 lost its full risk at the hard stop. Signal 6 had the widest stop of the day, 192.25 points, because its signal candle was the breakout itself.
The tape
Tuesday evening topped near 30,720. Price then chopped between about 30,520 and 30,660 for most of the night.
At 5:30 AM it broke out hard. Price ran to about 30,860 by 8:00 AM and held most of it into the bell.
Signal by signal
Signal 1: short
The first short printed at 6:00 PM. I sold at 30,630.25 with the hard stop at 30,686.75.
Price drifted sideways. The trail closed it at 30,619.50, for +10.75 points.
Signal 2: long
A long printed at 9:00 PM. I bought at 30,660.75 with the hard stop at 30,618.00.
It went nowhere. The trail closed it at 30,632.25, for −28.50 points.
Signal 3: short
A short came at 11:30 PM. I sold at 30,539.75 with the hard stop at 30,616.25.
Price swung back up and hit the hard stop. That was a full loss of 76.50 points.
Signal 4: long
A long printed at 12:30 AM. I bought at 30,693.00 with the hard stop at 30,613.75.
The range held again. The trail closed it at 30,643.50, for −49.50 points.
Signal 5: short
A short printed at 2:00 AM. I sold at 30,588.25 with the hard stop at 30,652.50.
Price chopped and lifted. The trail closed it at 30,601.25, for −13.00 points.
Signal 6: long
The breakout candle at 5:30 AM gave the long. I bought at 30,779.25 with the hard stop at 30,587.00.
Price kept climbing into the morning. The trail closed it at 30,845.00, for +65.75 points.
The review
Best execution
Signal 6. After four losers in a row, I took the breakout at the same size and the same rules. It made back most of what the range cost.
Where I leaked
No rule broke. Five signals came from a tight overnight range, and four of them lost. The plan takes every signal, so ranges like this are part of the cost.
The adjustment
Keep closing at the alarm. Today was the first clean bell in a week of breaks, and one day is not a habit.
Education, not financial advice. These are the signals one strategy produced, shown in points. Futures trading carries substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. Past results do not predict future results. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell anything. Full disclosures.
The plan
- Nothing before the 3:00 PM open
- Hard stop at the top/bottom of the first engulfing candle, never moved
- Trailing stop at the previous candle's top/bottom, moved every candle
- Flat by 1:00 PM, whatever is open
- Same size every signal
Yesterday's adjustment (keep the 12:55 PM alarm): kept for signals 1 to 4. Signal 5 is the rule break below.
The signals
| Opened | Closed | Side | Entry | Stop | Exit | Risk (pts) | Result (pts) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3:30 PM | 4:30 PM | Long | 30,605.75 | 30,572.50 | 30,585.00 | 33.25 | −20.75 |
| 5:30 PM | 11:00 PM | Short | 30,493.75 | 30,576.00 | 30,437.25 | 82.25 | +56.50 |
| 11:00 PM | 8:00 AM | Long | 30,527.25 | 30,426.00 | 30,647.25 | 101.25 | +120.00 |
| 8:30 AM | 11:30 AM | Short | 30,543.25 | 30,631.75 | 30,581.25 | 88.50 | −38.00 |
| 11:30 AM | 6:00 PM | Long | 30,661.00 | 30,560.00 | 30,682.50 | 101.00 | +21.50 |
| Net for the session (5 signals, 3 worked, 2 failed) | +139.25 | ||||||
Working it out
The record is in points so you can do your own math. On CME's Micro E-mini Nasdaq-100 (MNQ), one point is $2 per contract. Take the net points, multiply by $2 and by your contract count, then subtract your commissions and fees. That's your number, not mine.
Total risk across the five signals was 406.25 points. Signals 2 and 3 made 176.50 between them. Signal 3 made a little more than its risk.
The tape
Monday's close near 30,600 gave way in the evening. Price slid to about 30,380 by late Monday night.
The low held. Price climbed to about 30,720 by early Tuesday, dropped to 30,560 mid-morning, and recovered into the bell.
Signal by signal
Signal 1: long
The first long of the session printed at 3:30 PM. I bought at 30,605.75 with the hard stop at 30,572.50.
The next candle turned down. The trail closed it at 30,585.00, for −20.75 points.
Signal 2: short
The short came at 5:30 PM. I sold at 30,493.75 with the hard stop at 30,576.00.
Price kept sliding into the night. The trail closed it at 30,437.25, for +56.50 points.
Signal 3: long
The low held, and a long printed at 11:00 PM. I bought at 30,527.25 with the hard stop at 30,426.00.
Price climbed all night. The trail closed it at 30,647.25 at about 8:00 AM, for +120.00 points.
Signal 4: short
A sharp drop at 8:30 AM gave the short. I sold at 30,543.25 with the hard stop at 30,631.75.
Price bounced back up. The trail closed it at 30,581.25, for −38.00 points.
Signal 5: long
A long printed at 11:30 AM. I bought at 30,661.00 with the hard stop at 30,560.00.
It was open at 1:00 PM, and I held it. That broke the flat rule. It closed Tuesday at 6:00 PM at 30,682.50, for +21.50 points.
The review
Best execution
Signal 3. It came after two signals in a row had moved against the night's direction. I took it at the same size and let the trail work for nine hours.
Where I leaked
Signal 5. It was open at the bell, and I kept it. It paid +21.50, but that is the third time in four sessions this rule has broken.
The adjustment
When the 12:55 PM alarm rings, close the trade even if it is green. A winner gets no exception.
Education, not financial advice. These are the signals one strategy produced, shown in points. Futures trading carries substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. Past results do not predict future results. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell anything. Full disclosures.
The plan
- Nothing before the 3:00 PM open
- Hard stop at the top/bottom of the first engulfing candle, never moved
- Trailing stop at the previous candle's top/bottom, moved every candle
- Flat by 1:00 PM, whatever is open
- Same size every signal
Yesterday's adjustment (flatten at 12:55 PM): kept. Both signals were closed hours before the bell.
The signals
| Opened | Closed | Side | Entry | Stop | Exit | Risk (pts) | Result (pts) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3:30 PM | 5:00 PM | Short | 30,780.00 | 30,876.50 | 30,876.50 | 96.50 | −96.50 |
| 6:00 PM | 3:30 AM | Short | 30,772.75 | 30,835.75 | 30,616.25 | 63.00 | +156.50 |
| Net for the session (2 signals, 1 worked, 1 failed) | +60.00 | ||||||
Working it out
The record is in points so you can do your own math. On CME's Micro E-mini Nasdaq-100 (MNQ), one point is $2 per contract. Take the net points, multiply by $2 and by your contract count, then subtract your commissions and fees. That's your number, not mine.
Total risk across the two signals was 159.50 points. Signal 1 lost its full risk at the hard stop. Signal 2 made about two and a half times its risk.
The tape
The weekend open came in lower and kept slipping. A quick pop back toward 30,900 came first.
Then price sold off through the night to about 30,520. A sharp flush near 30,360 came after 8:00 AM, and price bounced back by late morning.
Signal by signal
Signal 1: short
The second candle of the week engulfed to the downside. I sold at 30,780.00 with the hard stop at 30,876.50.
Price snapped back up and hit the hard stop. That was a full loss of 96.50 points.
Signal 2: short
The next short signal came at 6:00 PM. I sold at 30,772.75, at the same size, with the hard stop at 30,835.75.
Price stepped lower through the night. The trail closed it at 30,616.25, for +156.50 points.
The review
Best execution
Signal 2. It came ninety minutes after a full stop. I took it at the same size, and it made back the loss and more.
Where I leaked
No rule broke. Signal 1 lost its full risk, which the plan allows.
The adjustment
Keep the 12:55 PM alarm. Two clean closes are not a habit yet.
Education, not financial advice. These are the signals one strategy produced, shown in points. Futures trading carries substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. Past results do not predict future results. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell anything. Full disclosures.
The plan
- Nothing before the 3:00 PM open
- Hard stop at the top/bottom of the first engulfing candle, never moved
- Trailing stop at the previous candle's top/bottom, moved every candle
- Flat by 1:00 PM, whatever is open
- Same size every signal
Yesterday's adjustment (flatten at 12:55 PM): kept. Signal 6 was closed at the 1:00 PM bell.
The signals
| Opened | Closed | Side | Entry | Stop | Exit | Risk (pts) | Result (pts) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3:30 PM | 5:00 PM | Short | 30,780.00 | 30,876.50 | 30,876.50 | 96.50 | −96.50 |
| 6:00 PM | 3:30 AM | Short | 30,772.75 | 30,835.75 | 30,616.25 | 63.00 | +156.50 |
| 4:00 AM | 7:00 AM | Long | 30,644.00 | 30,585.00 | 30,682.00 | 59.00 | +38.00 |
| 7:00 AM | 8:30 AM | Short | 30,506.75 | 30,690.00 | 30,531.25 | 183.25 | −24.50 |
| 9:30 AM | 11:30 AM | Long | 30,688.75 | 30,554.25 | 30,578.75 | 134.50 | −110.00 |
| 12:30 PM | 1:00 PM bell | Short | 30,534.00 | 30,616.25 | 30,579.75 | 82.25 | −45.75 |
| Net for the session (6 signals, 2 worked, 4 failed) | −82.25 | ||||||
Working it out
The record is in points so you can do your own math. On CME's Micro E-mini Nasdaq-100 (MNQ), one point is $2 per contract. Take the net points, multiply by $2 and by your contract count, then subtract your commissions and fees. That's your number, not mine.
Total risk across the six signals was 618.50 points. Signal 2 made +156.50 on its own. The four losers gave back 276.75 between them.
The tape
The weekend open slipped lower after a quick pop toward 30,900. Price sold off through the night to about 30,520.
It bounced to about 30,740 by 6:00 AM. Then it flushed to near 30,350 around 8:00 AM and chopped back to about 30,600 by the bell.
Signal by signal
Signal 1: short
The second candle of the week engulfed to the downside. I sold at 30,780.00 with the hard stop at 30,876.50.
Price snapped back up and hit the hard stop. That was a full loss of 96.50 points.
Signal 2: short
The next short signal came at 6:00 PM. I sold at 30,772.75, at the same size, with the hard stop at 30,835.75.
Price stepped lower through the night. The trail closed it at 30,616.25, for +156.50 points.
Signal 3: long
The overnight low held, and a long printed at 4:00 AM. I bought at 30,644.00 with the hard stop at 30,585.00.
Price pushed up into the morning. The trail closed it at 30,682.00, for +38.00 points.
Signal 4: short
A big down candle at 7:00 AM gave the short. I sold at 30,506.75, with the hard stop far above at 30,690.00.
Price bounced off the low fast. The trail closed it at 30,531.25, for −24.50 points.
Signal 5: long
The bounce gave a long at 9:30 AM. I bought at 30,688.75 with the hard stop at 30,554.25.
Price rolled over before noon. The trail closed it at 30,578.75, for −110.00 points.
Signal 6: short
One more short printed at 12:30 PM. I sold at 30,534.00 with the hard stop at 30,616.25.
Thirty minutes later the bell rang, and I closed it at 30,579.75. That was −45.75 points.
The review
Best execution
Signal 2. It came ninety minutes after a full stop. I took it at the same size, and it ran most of the night.
Where I leaked
No rule broke. Four of six signals lost in a wide, choppy morning, which the plan allows.
The adjustment
Keep the 12:55 PM alarm. It closed signal 6 today, and that is its job.
Education, not financial advice. These are the signals one strategy produced, shown in points. Futures trading carries substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. Past results do not predict future results. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell anything. Full disclosures.
The plan
- Nothing before the 3:00 PM open
- Hard stop at the top/bottom of the first engulfing candle, never moved
- Trailing stop at the previous candle's top/bottom, moved every candle
- Flat by 1:00 PM, whatever is open
- Same size every signal
Yesterday's adjustment (close everything at 12:55 PM): not kept. Signal 2 stayed open over the weekend.
The signals
| Opened | Closed | Side | Entry | Stop | Exit | Risk (pts) | Result (pts) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5:30 AM | 9:00 AM | Short | 30,871.00 | 30,951.50 | 30,862.25 | 80.50 | +8.75 |
| 9:00 AM | Sun 3:00 PM | Long | 30,952.50 | 30,816.50 | 30,851.75 | 136.00 | −100.75 |
| Net for the session (2 signals, 1 worked, 1 failed) | −92.00 | ||||||
Working it out
The record is in points so you can do your own math. On CME's Micro E-mini Nasdaq-100 (MNQ), one point is $2 per contract. Take the net points, multiply by $2 and by your contract count, then subtract your commissions and fees. That's your number, not mine.
Total risk across the two signals was 216.50 points. The loss on signal 2 was a little under its 136.00 points of risk. It never reached the hard stop.
The tape
Thursday's recovery kept going overnight. Price pushed up to about 30,990 before Friday's open.
It rolled over early Friday morning, then chopped between 30,830 and 30,900 into the weekend close.
Signal by signal
Signal 1: short
The first down candle off the high engulfed at 5:30 AM. I sold at 30,871.00, which also closed Thursday's long. The hard stop was 30,951.50.
Price dipped and came back. The trail closed it at 30,862.25, for +8.75 points.
Signal 2: long
A large green candle at 9:00 AM gave the long. The entry filled at 30,952.50, near the top of the candle's wick. The hard stop was 30,816.50.
Price never got back to the entry. The trade was open at 1:00 PM, and I held it into the weekend. It closed at the Sunday open at 30,851.75, for −100.75 points.
The review
Best execution
Signal 1. The opposite signal printed while Thursday's long was open. I took it on cue, which closed one trade and opened the next.
Where I leaked
Signal 2. It was open at the bell, and I kept it over a weekend. That is the same rule as Thursday, broken again. This time it cost points.
The adjustment
Set a 12:55 PM alarm on the trading PC. When it rings, flatten first and think after.
Education, not financial advice. These are the signals one strategy produced, shown in points. Futures trading carries substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. Past results do not predict future results. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell anything. Full disclosures.
The plan
- Nothing before the 3:00 PM open
- Hard stop at the top/bottom of the first engulfing candle, never moved
- Trailing stop at the previous candle's top/bottom, moved every candle
- Flat by 1:00 PM, whatever is open
- Same size every signal
Yesterday's adjustment (wait for a close outside a tight range): not kept. Signal 1 fired from the band the session opened in.
The signals
| Opened | Closed | Side | Entry | Stop | Exit | Risk (pts) | Result (pts) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3:00 PM | 3:30 PM | Long | 30,814.25 | 30,764.00 | 30,776.75 | 50.25 | −37.50 |
| 4:30 PM | 4:00 AM | Short | 30,744.00 | 30,782.75 | 30,459.75 | 38.75 | +284.25 |
| 6:00 AM | 7:30 AM | Long | 30,526.25 | 30,468.00 | 30,532.75 | 58.25 | +6.50 |
| 9:30 AM | Fri 5:30 AM | Long | 30,815.75 | 30,585.50 | 30,871.00 | 230.25 | +55.25 |
| Net for the session (4 signals, 3 worked, 1 failed) | +308.50 | ||||||
Working it out
The record is in points so you can do your own math. On CME's Micro E-mini Nasdaq-100 (MNQ), one point is $2 per contract. Take the net points, multiply by $2 and by your contract count, then subtract your commissions and fees. That's your number, not mine.
Total risk across the four signals was 377.50 points. Signal 2 made 284.25 of the net on its own, a little over seven times its risk. The other three added up to +24.25.
The tape
Wednesday's drop from near 31,000 was still in the chart at the open. Price sat in a flat band around 30,800 into the afternoon.
The band broke lower in the evening. Price slid to about 30,400 overnight, bounced, and ran back to the 30,800s by late Thursday morning.
Signal by signal
Signal 1: long
The first candle of the session engulfed to the upside. I bought at 30,814.25 with the hard stop at 30,764.00.
The next candle turned down, and the trailing stop took me out at 30,776.75. That was a loss of 37.50 points.
Signal 2: short
An hour later the short signal printed. I sold at 30,744.00, with the hard stop at 30,782.75.
Price fell for most of the night. The trail followed each candle down and closed it at 30,459.75, for +284.25 points.
Signal 3: long
The low held, and a long signal printed at 6:00 AM. I bought at 30,526.25 with the hard stop at 30,468.00.
It stalled after two candles. The trail closed it at 30,532.75, a small win of 6.50 points.
Signal 4: long
The big candle at 9:30 AM gave the next long. I bought at 30,815.75. The hard stop sat 230.25 points away, at the far edge of a very wide candle.
The trade was still open at 1:00 PM, and I held it. That broke the flat rule. It closed Friday at 5:30 AM at 30,871.00, for +55.25 points, when the short signal reversed it.
The review
Best execution
Signal 2. The first long failed fast. The short came ninety minutes later, and I took it at the same size. The trail did the rest, for +284.25 points.
Where I leaked
Signal 4. It was open at 1:00 PM, and I kept it. It paid +55.25 points overnight, which is the danger. A broken rule that pays teaches the wrong lesson.
The adjustment
At 12:55 PM, close whatever is open. A working trade gets no exception.
Education, not financial advice. These are the signals one strategy produced, shown in points, from a simulated account. Futures trading carries substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. Past results do not predict future results. Nothing here is a signal or a recommendation to buy or sell anything. Full disclosures.
The plan
- Entry only on the first engulfing candle with no shadow on the trend side
- Nothing before the 3:00 PM open
- Hard stop at the top/bottom of the signal candle, never moved
- Trailing stop at the previous candle's top/bottom, moved every candle
- Reverse only on the next engulfing candle in the opposite direction
- Flat by 1:00 PM, whatever is open
- Same size every signal
Yesterday's adjustment (wait for a close outside a tight range): not kept. Signals 2 and 3 were taken inside the band at the top.
The signals
| Opened | Closed | Side | Entry | Stop | Exit | Best | Worst | Risk (pts) | Result (pts) | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3:00 PM | 4:30 PM | Long | 31,061.00 | 31,018.75 | 31,041.25 | 31,081.00 | 31,035.00 | 42.25 | −19.75 | B |
| 7:00 PM | 10:30 PM | Short | 30,983.25 | 31,036.00 | 31,015.50 | 30,960.00 | 31,020.00 | 52.75 | −32.25 | C |
| 10:30 PM | 1:30 AM | Long | 31,052.00 | 31,018.50 | 31,038.00 | 31,081.00 | 31,030.00 | 33.50 | −14.00 | C |
| 4:30 AM | 6:30 AM | Short | 30,911.25 | 31,007.50 | 30,970.25 | 30,890.00 | 30,975.00 | 96.25 | −59.00 | C |
| 7:00 AM | 12:30 PM | Short | 30,640.25 | 30,947.50 | 30,732.00 | 30,640.00 | 30,760.00 | 307.25 | −91.75 | B |
| 11:00 AM | 1:00 PM | Long | 30,769.00 | 30,716.75 | 30,740.75 | 30,790.00 | 30,735.00 | 52.25 | −28.25 | B |
| Net for the session (6 signals, 0 worked, 6 failed) | −245.00 | |||||||||
Working it out
The record is in points so you can do your own math. On CME's Micro E-mini Nasdaq-100 (MNQ), one point is $2 per contract. Take the net points, multiply by $2 and by your contract count, then subtract your commissions and fees. That's your number, not mine.
Total risk across the six signals was 584.25 points and the day lost 245.00. Six signals in one session is also six sets of commissions and six spreads, on a day when none of them paid. Signal 5 alone carried 307.25 points of risk, because the signal candle was a 300-point candle and the stop goes at its far edge. It lost 91.75, which is less than a third of what was on the table, and that is the only thing about it that went right.
The tape
- Price spent the evening and the overnight in a 60-point band at the top of Monday and Tuesday's rally, between roughly 31,018 and 31,081.
- The break came at 7:00 AM Arizona time, a single 30-minute candle from about 30,947 to 30,640, more than 300 points, into the cash open.
- The low held near 30,680 and the last two hours of the session climbed slowly back toward 30,770.
Context, not cause. The signals came from the chart, not the headlines, and this note describes the chart.
Signal by signal
Six signals and none of them worked. That is the first red session on the record, and it is the kind of day the record exists for. Every entry, stop and exit is below, in the order they came.
Signal 1: long, −19.75
The session opened at 3:00 PM with price sitting at the top of a two-day rally. The long came at 31,061.00 with the stop 42.25 points below at 31,018.75. Price pushed to 31,081 and rolled over, and the trail took it out at 31,041.25 about an hour and a half in.
Signal 2: short, −32.25
The candles turned red at the top and the short came at 30,983.25 with the stop up at 31,036.00. The move down never came. Price chopped for three hours and the trail closed it at 31,015.50. Inside a range, and it should not have been taken.
Signal 3: long, −14.00
Then the other side of the same range. Long at 31,052.00, stop at 31,018.50, exit at 31,038.00 for a 14-point loss. Small, because the trail did its job, and unnecessary, because the range had not broken.
Signal 4: short, −59.00
The range finally cracked lower before dawn. Short at 30,911.25 with the stop at 31,007.50, 96 points above. Price bounced instead of breaking, and the trail closed it at 30,970.25. The biggest of the small losses.
Signal 5: short, −91.75
The 7:00 AM candle. More than 300 points in one bar, into the cash open, and it closed with no shadow on the trend side. Short at 30,640.25, stop at the top of the candle at 30,947.50. That is 307.25 points of risk on one signal, and the rules do not make exceptions for size. Price bounced from 30,680, the trail followed it, and the exit came at 30,732.00. Nearly 92 points lost by following the rules exactly.
Signal 6: long, −28.25
The bounce produced a long at 30,769.00 with the stop at 30,716.75. Price made 30,790 and faded. Flat by 1:00 PM at 30,740.75, a 28.25-point loss, and the session was over.
Net: −245.00 points, six signals, none of them worked. Total risk across all six was 584.25 points, so the day gave back a little under half of one risk unit. Two of the six were the same mistake as Tuesday's. The other four were the strategy losing in a market that reversed hard, which is what strategies do sometimes.
The review
Best execution today
Signal 5, and it lost 91.75. The 7:00 AM candle was the biggest of the week and it closed with no shadow on the trend side, so the rules said short, and the stop went at its top, 307 points away. That is an ugly number to accept. The rules do not have a clause for ugly. The trail then walked it down through the morning and took it out at 30,732.00 when the bounce came. The stop was never in danger and the size was the same as every other signal. Losing by the rules is the job on a day like this.
Where I leaked
Signals 2 and 3, and it was yesterday's adjustment ignored. Tuesday's lesson was not to take signals inside a tight range. Wednesday night produced a tight range in a different place, at the top instead of the middle, and I took two signals inside it for a combined 46.25 points. Same leak, new address. The adjustment was written; it was not applied, because the range didn't look like Tuesday's range.
The adjustment
Define the range in points, not by eye. If the last four candles sit inside a 60-point band, the next signal waits for a close outside the band. A rule that needs me to recognise the situation is not a rule yet. One with a number in it is.
Education, not financial advice. These are the signals one strategy produced, shown in points. Futures trading carries substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. Past results do not predict future results. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell anything. Full disclosures.
The signals
| Opened | Side | Entry | Stop | Exit | Risk (pts) | Result (pts) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3:00 PM | Long | 30,821.00 | 30,779.25 | 30,867.00 | 41.75 | +46.00 |
| 7:30 PM | Short | 30,831.00 | 30,883.25 | 30,778.50 | 52.25 | +52.50 |
| 2:00 AM | Long | 30,802.50 | 30,743.00 | 30,797.75 | 59.50 | −4.75 |
| 5:00 AM | Short | 30,747.75 | 30,793.50 | 30,781.00 | 45.75 | −33.25 |
| 10:00 AM | Long | 30,957.75 | 30,914.50 | 31,018.25 | 43.25 | +60.50 |
| Net for the session (5 signals, 3 worked, 2 failed) | +121.00 | |||||
Working it out
The record is in points so you can do your own math. On CME's Micro E-mini Nasdaq-100 (MNQ), one point is $2 per contract. Take the net points, multiply by $2 and by your contract count, then subtract your commissions and fees. That's your number, not mine.
Total risk across the five signals was 242.50 points, and the day netted 121.00. That's half of one risk unit for a full session of work, which is what a normal day looks like. Five signals also means five sets of commissions and five spreads, so the cost side matters more on a day like this than it did yesterday.
The tape
- Chipmakers rallied for a sixth straight day, pushing the Nasdaq-100 toward its first record since June. Bloomberg
- The Nasdaq Composite set a fresh all-time intraday high in morning trading. CNBC
- Oil kept sliding, with crude down around 3% on the day. Yahoo Finance
- Risk appetite improved on reported progress toward de-escalation with Iran, though Trump told the UN a deal would come after the November midterms. Yahoo Finance
Context, not cause. The signals came from the chart, not the headlines.
Signal by signal
Five signals today, against one yesterday. That's the strategy responding to a different market: yesterday trended in one direction all session, while today spent most of its hours going sideways.
Signal 1: long, +46.00
The session opened at 3:00 PM with price flat at the top of Monday's rally. The long came at 30,821.00 with the stop 41.75 points below at 30,779.25, and the exit came at 30,867.00 as the candles stalled at the highs. A small, ordinary winner.
Signal 2: short, +52.50
The same stall that closed signal 1 set up the other side. Short at 30,831.00, stop 52.25 points above at 30,883.25, and price rolled over through the evening down to the overnight low. The exit came at 30,778.50. Best signal of the day, and it came from taking the opposite direction within the hour.
Signal 3: long, −4.75
At the low, the candles turned green and the long came at 30,802.50 with the stop down at 30,743.00. It went nowhere. The exit at 30,797.75 gave back 4.75 points, barely more than the cost of the trade.
Signal 4: short, −33.25
Then the same range in the other direction. Short at 30,747.75 with the stop 45.75 points above, and the exit at 30,781.00 for a 33.25-point loss. The stop never got hit, but the move never came either. Two signals inside one tight overnight range, both of them losers.
Signal 5: long, +60.50
The range broke with the morning ramp. Long at 30,957.75, stop at 30,914.50, and the exit came at 31,018.25 into the close. The biggest winner of the day, and the only signal that came after price had left the range behind.
Net: +121.00 points, three signals that worked and two that didn't. Total risk across all five was 242.50 points, so half a risk unit came back. That's a normal day, and normal days are most of them.
The review
Best execution today
Signal 2. Price stalled at the highs after signal 1 closed, the candles turned, and the short went with it down to the overnight low. Taking the other side that quickly is the part most traders can't do, because it means admitting the move you just rode is over.
Where I leaked
Signals 3 and 4, and the cost was 38.00 points between them. Both were taken inside a range barely 60 points wide, in the dead hours before the cash open. Neither lost much, because neither was given room to, but two trades that go nowhere in the middle of the night are two trades that didn't need taking.
The adjustment
Inside a range that tight, wait for a candle to close outside it before taking the next signal. Signal 5 is the example: the range broke first, then the entry came.
Education, not financial advice. These are the signals one strategy produced, shown in points. Futures trading carries substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. Past results do not predict future results. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell anything. Full disclosures.
The chart
The signals
| Opened | Closed | Side | Entry | Stop | Exit | Risk (pts) | Result (pts) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun 3:00 PM | Mon 1:00 PM | Long | 30,033.75 | 29,945.25 | 30,766.00 | 88.50 | +732.25 |
| Net for the session (1 signal, 1 worked, 0 failed) | +732.25 | ||||||
Working it out
The record is in points so you can do your own math. On CME's Micro E-mini Nasdaq-100 (MNQ), one point is $2 per contract. Take the net points, multiply by $2 and by your contract count, then subtract your commissions and fees. That's your number, not mine.
Risk on this signal was 88.50 points from entry to stop. The exit came at a little over eight times that risk. Most signals won't look like this one, and some will be full losses.
The tape
- Nasdaq futures ran more than 1% as chipmakers and AI-linked names rallied into Monday. Investrade
- Oil fell hard to start the week, with WTI down more than 5%. CNBC
- Markets were still digesting last week's Fed hike, the first in three years. TheStreet via Yahoo Finance
- Trump hosts Xi at the White House on September 24, with trade, tariffs and AI on the agenda. Investrade
Context, not cause. The signal came from the chart, not the headlines.
Signal by signal
Day one of the record, and the strategy produced one signal.
NQ pulled back from Thursday's high into Friday, making lower highs and lower lows. Late Friday the selling stopped and the candles turned green off the low, and that turn held into the weekend.
The buy came at Sunday's 3:00 PM open, with price already climbing off Friday's low. That open starts Monday's CME session, which is why Sunday and Monday are one session and one post. Long at 30,033.75, with the stop at 29,945.25 under the structure low. That's 88.50 points of risk.
Then it went quiet. Price drifted sideways overnight and through the early morning, never threatening the stop. The Heikin Ashi candles stayed green and the higher lows kept holding. Nothing to do but leave it alone.
The move came with the cash open. NQ ran in a straight line through the morning, and the candles didn't give one reason to get out. The exit came at the closing bell, 1:00 PM Arizona time, at 30,766.00. Net: +732.25 points.
A day like this is rare. Holding a signal for most of a session only works when the structure keeps confirming it, and today it did. Tomorrow it may not.
The review
Best execution today
Signal 1, and the best part wasn't the entry. It was the waiting. The signal came at Sunday evening's open, then sat for hours overnight doing nothing. The stop stayed where the structure put it, and the plan ran to the closing bell without a single change.
Where I leaked
Nothing on the chart broke a rule. The risk after a day like this comes tomorrow, not today. A big green session makes the next signal feel like it should be just as big, and that's how traders size up or force entries that aren't there.
The adjustment
Same size and same setup tomorrow. No entry until structure confirms, whatever today's number was.
Every trading day gets one post, and every post has the same shape. Once you've read two of them you'll never need to hunt for anything again.
The chart, first
Every close opens with the chart for that session, marked up after the bell. Every signal the rules produced is on it — the entries, the exits, and the ones that failed. Nothing is marked during the session and nothing is removed afterwards. If you want to check a signal against the price action, the chart is there for exactly that.
The table
Under the chart, a table. One row per signal: the time, the direction, the entry level, the exit level, and the result in points. Winners and failures in the same table, in the same format, with a net for the session at the bottom.
Points, not dollars. That's deliberate, and there's a whole post on why.
Working it out for yourself
Then a short block that tells you how to turn those points into a number that means something to you. The point value of one MNQ contract is published by CME. Your commissions, fees and slippage are yours. Multiply, subtract, and that's what the session would have been worth to you at one MNQ.
It is not what it was worth to me. I don't publish that, and I don't say which signals I took.
The tape
The headlines that ran while the session was open, with the time they broke and a link to the original publisher. This is context, not explanation. The rules don't read the news, and I don't want anyone reading the table as if they do.
Signal by signal
A paragraph on each one. What the rules saw, where the trigger came, what price did next, where the exit fired. If a signal failed, that paragraph says so plainly and says why the rules took it anyway.
Those paragraphs are worth more than the winners. Anyone can write up a trade that worked.
Then an essay
One short piece on whatever the session raised. Something noticed, something got wrong, something every trader believes that the day complicated. One idea per post — two ideas make a worse essay than one.
This is the part worth reading on a session where nothing happened, which over a year is most of them.
What I'd flag
A closing note from the desk. Conditions, a near-miss, a rule that got tested. Two or three sentences.
Then the notices
Every post ends with the same two paragraphs: the hypothetical performance notice, and the reminder that nothing here is advice. They're there because they're required, and because they're true.
That's the shape. Here's a full example with every section laid out. Now go read the record.
Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument, or advice tailored to any person. I am not a registered investment adviser or commodity trading advisor and I do not manage money for anyone. Trading carries a substantial risk of loss and you can lose more than your deposit. Full disclosures.
Raise your hand if day trading feels like guessing.
- You've switched strategies more times than you've had a green week.
- You passed part of an evaluation, then one bad day undid it.
- You don't know if your setup works, only how the last trade felt.
You're not alone, and it isn't because you're missing a secret indicator. Most traders never run one set of rules long enough to find out if it works. That's the whole idea here: one setup, run in public, every session, so you can see what disciplined rules actually look like, including the losing days.
Get started
Where are you now?
The method
The One‑Setup Method.
Three rules. Everything on this site runs on them.
Read the full method →- One setupHeikin-Ashi, an engulfing candle with no shadow, on NQ. Nothing else gets traded.
- Plain rulesRisk is set before the session. When the daily loss hits, I'm done for the day.
- Every session, in publicPosted after the close, in points, losing days left in. The record is the proof.
The record
The rules, run in public.
Every session's net in points, added up in order. A rules-only, simulated record, separate from my live account. Not typical. See every session
The 2-minute check
Are you ready for a prop firm evaluation?
Eight honest yes-or-no questions. You'll get a score and the one thing to fix first. Nothing is saved or sent anywhere.
From the record
The latest sessions.
September 30, 2026: six signals, two worked, −91.00 points
Six signals in a tight overnight range, and only two worked. The morning breakout came too late to cover it. Net −91.00 points.
September 29, 2026: five signals, three worked, +139.25 points
Five signals, three worked. A long from the overnight low did the heavy lifting, and the last long stayed open past the bell. Net +139.25 points.
September 28, 2026: six signals, two worked, −82.25 points
Six signals, two worked. One overnight short carried the day until a hard morning flipped it red. Net −82.25 points.
Trade it live
Watch the sessions as they happen.
Every weekday on Prop Firm Duel TV, then the session goes up here, and we talk it through in the Discord.
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- Session postedHere, after the New York sessionWin or lose
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