Day 30: Read Your Numbers

You've traded 30 sessions on paper and logged every one. Now you get to answer the question most traders never answer honestly: is this working?

The three numbers

1. Plan followed: the percentage of sessions where you followed every rule. This comes first. If it's low, your results don't measure your strategy; they measure your discipline.
2. Expectancy: your average result per trade in points, wins and losses together. See what expectancy is. Positive after costs is the bar.
3. Worst stretch: your biggest run of losing sessions and the points it cost. That's the drawdown you'll need to sit through for real.

What the numbers tell you

• Plan followed low: don't change the setup. Run another 30 sessions focused only on following the plan.
• Plan followed high, expectancy negative: the setup is the problem. Change one rule, then run another 30 sessions. Change one thing at a time.
• Plan followed high, expectancy positive: good. Remember small samples lie; another 30 sessions makes the evidence much stronger.

If you go further

Whatever comes next, real money or a prop firm evaluation, start at the smallest size available and keep the same log. Expect real results to be a little worse than paper. And remember most people who day trade lose money; a good paper record improves your odds, it doesn't guarantee anything.

Keep going

I still paper trade any new idea before it touches a real account. If you want company, Fulltilt is the trading community I run, where traders post their plans, wins and losses every day.

Your task

Calculate your three numbers and write down your next 30 sessions' focus. Then start again.